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Introduction
The
Great Gujarat Earthquake in India in January 2001
revealed the vulnerability of "non-earthquake-proof"
cities and villages. In 1934, an earthquake of magnitude
8.4 caused serious damages to 60% of the buildings
in the Kathmandu Valley. It is a cause for great concern
that the next great earthquake may occur in Nepal
at any time.
The
Kathmandu Valley is the exclusive centre of Nepal
for politics, the economy, and society, with a large
population of more than 1.5 million. Once a great
earthquake occurs, Kathmandu will suffer immense losses
of life and property and will be unlikely to be able
to function as the capital of Nepal.
Current
natural disaster management and the present legal
framework focus mainly on rural water-induced disasters
and give inadequate attention to earthquake disasters
in the highly urbanised Kathmandu Valley. A major
earthquake in the Valley's urban areas will result
in tragic disaster.
His
Majesty's Government of Nepal (HMG) has been concerned
about earthquake disaster management and requested
the Government of Japan to implement the Study on
Earthquake Disaster Mitigation in Kathmandu Valley.
The Government of Japan and Japan international Cooperation
Agency (JICA), the official implementing agency for
Official Technical Cooperation, dispatched a preliminary
survey team to Kathmandu on August 2000 and exchanged
Scope of Work and Minutes of meeting with HMG. Nippon
Koei Co. Ltd. and OYO Corporation entered into a contract
with JICA and conducted this study from January 2001
to February 2002.
The
goals set in this study are focused on;
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Protecting the life and
property of the people in the Kathmandu Valley,
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Strengthening socio-economic
systems, and
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Protecting the stability
of governance even in case of earthquakes.
Approaching the goals as closely
as possible, this Study forms the first milestone
of a long process.
The objectives of the Study set by the Team, following
the goals, are;
-
to formulate a plan for earthquake
disaster mitigation in the Kathmandu Valley,
-
to carry out technology transfer
to Nepalese counterpart personnel and formulation
of a plan encouraging them to undertake emergency
actions, and
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to create a database on earthquakes
and an earthquake disaster scenario.
In this study, three new fault
models were selected, and the destructive force of
each was calculated as follows, based on the natural
and social conditions.
-
Mid Nepal Earthquake (Magnitude
= 8.0), MMI VIII
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North Bagmati Earthquake (Magnitude
= 6.0), MMI VI or VII
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KV Local Earthquake (Magnitude
= 5.7), Most parts MMI VII or VIII, along fault
line MMI IX.
In addition, 4) the reoccurrence
of the 1934 Bihar-Nepal Earthquake (Magnitude = 8.4)
was modelled for comparison. Most parts MMI VIII,
Eastern part, MMI IX.
The liquefaction potential for
all models was evaluated as relatively low, compared
to the previous estimation.
The anticipated disaster in the Kathmandu Valley caused
by the "Mid Nepal Earthquake" is as follows.
-
The number of heavily damaged
buildings: 53,000, i.e. 21 % of total buildings.
-
The death toll: 18,000, i.e.
1.3% of the total population in the Valley.
-
The seriously injured people:
53,000, i.e. 3.8% of the total population in the
Valley.
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